Brexit Britain unable to afford basic public services

Stark warnings indeed from Private Eye. The simple message seems to be get fit before 2040 or die on a waiting list. I'll probably manage to do both of those things.

The economy hasn't shrunk since Brexit.

How much bigger would the economy realistically be if Brexit hadn't happened?

It's gone on increased spending on public services.

Government spending as a proportion of GDP is nearing record peacetime highs if not already above them.

It's not as if there's been a significant demographic shift or anything...

That is cumulative gdp though not the size of the economy a more realistic graph is this.

The graphs represent the same data.

Yours is just looking at a wider timeline and only indexed to 2019.

The actual data points are identical.

I think Ratfink's maybe clearer (long-term trends and all).  Of course I wouldn't come around here saying "it's not just Brexit" (justifying either a positive or negative view of it) but for whatever reasons there appears to be a bit of a plateau post-Covid.  Probably a case of "too early to say" though (like the effect of the French Revolution...)

The problem with ratfink's graph is that by choosing a far longer timescale the relatively small changes since 2016 are hard to differentiate.

The take home point is that, when compared to other similarly sized EU economies, our economic growth post Brexit has been entirely unremarkable.

The real question is what are the USA and Canada doing differently to Europe?

Rich_cb wrote:

The problem with ratfink's graph is that by choosing a far longer timescale the relatively small changes since 2016 are hard to differentiate.

...or puts things in perspective relative to "events" (e.g. Covid)...

If you go onto the ONS site you can change the dates to any date range for GDP for some reason if you save the image it only gives you that full range.Despite the chart you posted saying source ONS, i can find no mention of cumulative GDP on that site at all?

Cumulative just means how much it has increased in total. Referenced back to a particular point. It's the same data you posted.

Eg
Year 1: 10% growth
Year 2: 10% growth

Cumulative 21%.

On your graph the reference year would be 100.
Year 1 would be 110.
Year 2 would be 121.

It's just two different ways of presenting the same data.

Yes, i know that, it seems a skewed way of presenting information to me especially when comparing to other countries for example the 2016 date takes advantage of the fact that despite the referendum nothing really changed and the second date takes advantage of the covid drop and looks inflated due to the bounce back from a low point,If you produced the same thing using 2001 when we actually left the single market it would look completely different,That's the time to start comparing other countries.It still doesn't take away the fact that yes you are right the economy hasn't shrunk since brexit whenever you start 2016 or 2021.Personally i think 2001 is the date to start looking whichever way it goes.

Nothing changed legally in 2016 but the economic disruption certainly began.

Many companies paused investment etc until they knew what form, if any, Brexit would take.

Despite this our economic growth during that period was on par with similar economies within the EU.

The problem with using 2021 is that COVID restrictions caused absolute mayhem with the data so any data point take during that period will be less reliable. Using a pre COVID point makes sense IMO.

I like the cumulative data. It is more intuitive in my opinion.

Nevertheless the main point is that however you present the data the economy has indeed grown, as you said, and has done so in a wholly unremarkable way for a major European economy during that period of time.

Still progressing apparently. No confident assurances just yet though.

I'll stick with the 2001 date as all countries had covid and it'll even out over time,Not because it looks worse at the moment time will tell.

.

The "de-funding" of public services is so acute that the NHS headcount has increased more than 200,000 FTEs in the last 4 years. 

And as reported in the Times last week:

"The number of patients being admitted for routine or emergency care by the NHS is no higher than in 2019 despite 16% more doctors, 15% more nurses and £20B in additional real terms funding"

[Some] Public services aren't working* because of pish poor leadership and the complete lack of focus on productivity and removing waste.

Imagine adding the equivalent headcount of the entire British armed forces and actually doing less than before.
 

* some are doing a great job by using digital to transfer how they work and where the work gets done. HMPO is a stand out example of this.

It's a state secret!  Everyone knows Putin has been stockpiling wine - we don't want to let him know how quick we'll run dry or he might exploit the wine gap.

This explains the undercover operation by Special Forces to supply wine to Downing Street during Covid in a suitcase.

ktache wrote:

Pints of wine in cans. You know it makes sense.

Stops any of that "you can always put the cap back on the bottle" nonsense!

I can see Al Murray's Pub Landlord promoting a British pint of British wine in a British Toby jug!

Or perhaps Lord Toby Jug himself?

Would a Ken Livingstoby jug would be most appropriate for many here?  Something for everyone though - this pottery has many political figures covered.

They would not do it either - new machines, bottles, labels, processes and storage.
Complete distraction from the issues and to appease the 1.3% and telegraph readers.